Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 21.797172 25.624202 30.324529 36.664449 45.230543 56.791090 74.335493
2024-12-29 17.266808 21.614290 27.531636 36.593941 51.019081 75.097465 124.384309
2025-01-05 14.336914 18.568097 24.667432 34.742412 52.571555 87.266941 179.004302
2025-01-12 12.168874 16.093513 21.958020 32.134030 51.500812 93.744228 232.904683
2025-01-19 10.666409 14.334782 19.971602 30.144755 50.712345 100.345219 304.565175
2025-01-26 10.775211 14.982889 21.850492 35.389480 67.008688 166.833046 1076.969505
2025-02-02 10.361801 14.734039 22.164774 37.750947 78.348350 240.639008 5528.056599
2025-02-09 9.431182 13.523378 20.585380 35.759037 77.073892 260.734439 19287.351024
2025-02-16 9.072746 13.227286 20.620163 37.308324 87.260236 372.938138 NaN
2025-02-23 8.589537 12.663051 20.064016 37.353647 92.809130 484.442541 NaN
2025-03-02 8.143763 12.120412 19.475672 37.183223 97.672028 629.074349 NaN
2025-03-09 7.817502 11.759102 19.198001 37.737406 106.033482 920.133739 NaN
2025-03-16 7.289763 11.021180 18.132137 36.156842 105.142599 1087.882495 NaN
2025-03-23 6.941438 10.585927 17.647838 36.082958 111.645354 1678.368254 NaN
2025-03-30 6.490818 9.926858 16.621441 34.269795 108.324214 1892.007720 NaN
2025-04-06 6.021365 9.204798 15.401888 31.713593 99.905926 1702.525975 NaN
2025-04-13 5.635939 8.619773 14.433748 29.762731 94.106070 1647.309519 NaN
2025-04-20 5.805323 9.085065 15.768481 34.903604 134.124045 39432.291051 NaN
2025-04-27 5.746178 9.106682 16.128055 37.215675 162.489730 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.438072 8.620239 15.271846 35.265536 154.333780 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.349366 8.561890 15.407993 36.782431 179.800544 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.186349 8.344255 15.144863 36.826796 192.098830 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.023862 8.118139 14.840770 36.659971 202.591762 NaN NaN